President Bush is in his last months of office and that makes him a dangerous person regarding countries like Iran. With nothing to lose because he can no longer be reelected, Bush can now do things that he couldn’t do earlier. For example, he has recently signed off on significant arms sales to Taiwan and Israel that have spark controversy in some corners. Now he may finally be ready to attack Iran’s nuclear program after a year of slow but steady build-up of American forces in the region. In fact, some Iranian officials are so unnerved by this possibility that one has even called for retaliatory attacks on London in order to try and deter Bush from taking action.
This recommendation comes from a senior official in Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Why did he specifically name London and not just make another of Iran’s seemingly endless threats against Israel? There are three reasons. The first is that like the boy who cried wolf too often, threatening Israel has lost its effect. If not today, Iran would threaten the Jewish state next week over another issue. Second, Israel’s anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses are quite formidable and it would be difficult for Iran to crack them now or in the near future. Last, is the fact that the UK has been a loyal and long-standing partner of the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the fight against terrorism. Threatening the UK elevates this game of brinksmanship to a new level.
Should this threat be taken seriously? I don’t think anyone does but maybe they should. Even though none of Iran’s ballistic missiles has the range to reach London, Tehran does have one ace in the hole: suicide bombers. Who knows how many sleeper cells Iran has in London and the UK? A simple email, message posted on the Internet or even an SMS can activate them. It is simple, effective and deadly. However, one thing the Iranians should take into account is that the Brits are hardened towards terrorist acts and have the courage and will to absorb blows and fight back. Suicide bombings will not make them back off from their commitments or run away like the Spanish did in Iraq. They will just piss them off.
If Bush does attack Iran, Israel will almost certainly play a major support if not an active role in it and earn the wrath of Tehran as a result. The Jewish state would surely take a lot of damage from all the resources Iran can bring to bear but that will not deter the Israelis from participating. This threat against the UK is just a bluff, something the Iranians are very good at. In the long run, they cannot afford to attack the Brits on their own soil as London can pay them back economically for many years to come. Tehran would just have to content itself with shooting down a few US planes, killing a few hundred Israelis and trying to cut off the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf. The powerlessness of the situation must be giving them ulcers.
